Comparing 2015 to Previous Corn Crop Years

I wanted to take a moment to look back at crop-conditions since 2005. I have listed below a comparison of the current overall USDA weekly crop-conditions along with a comparison of the conditions in the weighted 8-Key production states. I know this isn’t what the bulls want to hear, but if you really start digging into ALL of the available past and present data, the USDA’s current 166 type yield estimate has actually become very feasible.

  • 2015 Week Ending July 26th – Crop rated 70% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2014 Week Ending August 3rd – Crop rated 73% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2013 Week Ending August 4th – Crop rated 64% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2012 Week Ending August 5th – Crop rated 23% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2011 Week Ending July 21st – Crop rated 62% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2010 Week Ending August 1st – Crop rated 71% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2009 Week Ending August 2nd – Crop rated 68% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2008 Week Ending August 3rd – Crop rated 66% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2007 Week Ending August 5th – Crop rated 56% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2006 Week Ending August 6th – Crop rated 57% “Good-to-Excellent”
  • 2005 Week Ending July 31st – Crop rated 53% “Good-to-Excellent”

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Illinois – Currently at 57% GD/EX, means there has been 7 years since 2005 with better conditions and 3 years worse: 2012 at 4% rated GD/EX; 2005 at 13% rated GD/EX; 2011 at 53% GD/EX. Remember, last year they harvested a record 200 bushels per acre. The crop was rated 81% GD/EX compared to this years crop being rated just 57% GD/EX. Doesn’t look like they’ll harvest anywhere close to what they have seen the past couple of years, most thinking somewhere between 160 and 170.

Iowa – Currently at 83% rated GD/EX, makes this their best ever. The next best rating came in 2009 at 78% GD/EX. The worst year was in 2012 when the crop was rated at just 16% GD/EX. Keep in mind, last year they harvested a yield of 178 bushels per acre. Their record yield is 181 bushels per acre harvested back in both 2004 and 2009. The crop is currently rated at 83% GD/EX compared to just 68% rated GD/EX back in the record year of 2009. This has many sources now thinking the Iowa yield could end up record large between 190 and 200 bushels per acre in 2015.

Indiana – Currently at 46% GD/EX means there has been 6 years since 2005 with better conditions and 4 years worse: 2012 at 7% rated GD/EX; 2011 at 41% GD/EX; 2006 at 44% GD/EX; 2005 at 45% rated GD/EX. Remember, last year they harvest a record yield of 188 bushels per acre. Last year at this stage their crop was rated 75% GD/EX compared to the current rating of just 46% GD/EX. With conditions nearly 30% worse than last year has many talking about a 135 to 145 type average yield.

Minnesota – Currently at 87% GD/EX makes this their second best year only behind 2010 when 90% was rated GD/EX. Their worst year was in 2007 when just 25% was rated GD/EX. Their record yield stands at 177 bushels per acre set back in 2010 when the crop was actually rated at 90% GD/EX at this stage. The current crop rated at 87% certainly makes a new record obtainable and certainly much better than last years 156 yield. Many sources thinking a 182 to 189 type yield is in the equation.

Missouri – Currently at 51% GD/EX means there has been only 3 years since 2005 with better conditions and 6 years with worse: 2008 had exactly  the same condition rating as it is right now. Last year was the best year at 82% rated GD/EX. 2012 was the worst at 5% rated GD/EX. Obviously were looking at complete turnaround compared to last years record yield of 186 bushels per acre. The current GD/EX rating is 31% lower than last year and has many talking about a 140 to 150 type yield.

Nebraska – Currently at 74% GD/EX means there has been 5 years since 2005 with better conditions and 5 years worse: Their best year was in 2010 with 84% rated GD/EX. Their worst was 2012 at 35% rated GD/EX. Last years yield of 179 tied their previous record. Keep in mind this years crop condition is currently rated slightly higher than last year, so there’s talk of a yield somewhere between 175 and 180.

Ohio – Currently at 46% GD/EX means there has been 8 years since 2005 with better conditions and 2 years worse: 2012 at 14% rated GD/EX; 2007 at 40% GD/EX; Their best was 2013 at 80% GD/EX. Last year they harvested a record 176 bushel per acre and the crop was rated 77% GD/EX at this juncture. This years crop is rated 30% lower, with most now talking about a 140 to 150 yield.

South Dakota – Currently at 75% GD/EX means there has been 2 years since 2005 with better conditions and 7 years worse: 2011 was exactly the same at 75%. 2012 was the worst at 24%. 2008 was the best at 81%. Last year they harvested a 148 bushel yield, just slightly lower than the record set back in 2009 at 153 bushels per acre. This year’s crop is currently rated just 1% lower than the record crop was rated in 2009, making a 150 to 155 yield possible.

Conclusion: According to the data, Iowa and Minnesota are defiantly having a record setting type year; Missouri is going to take a significant hit compared to last year, but might not end up that far below average; Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are clearly having a tough year when compared to last years record setting harvest, but nothing like they experienced in 2012; South Dakota and Nebraska look as if they may harvest above trend-line yields and both have a very strong chance of setting new records. As I said a month ago, I believe it’s all coming down to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. If these three states continue to show improvements, yield estimates will continue working higher towards 170. If those states start to deteriorate or run into a couple of hiccups, yield estimates will start to be adjusted lower towards 160. Keep in mind some of the other important production states like AR, CO, KS, ND, TX and WI are all having rock solid type years. I’m now of the belief its’ going to take a fairly sizable hiccup for the U.S. national corn yield to come in under a 165 type yield.

This article is only an excerpt of the 7/31/15 Van Trump Report. Sign up for a free trial by clicking here.

IGC Forecasts Third Largest World Grain Harvest On Record

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its estimate for 2015-16 world grain harvest by 4 million metric tons to 1.97 billion, which would be the third largest ever recorded. While IGC recognized dry conditions in Europe and Canada, global wheat output was only lowered by 1 million metric tons to 710 million. Corn production however was raised by 3 million to 966 million metric tons. The upgrade includes a 5 million metric ton increase to their Chinese production estimate, which brings it to a record 225 million metric tons.

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Limited Knowledge of Animal Diseases is Posing Larger Risk To Humans

Viral diseases like bird flu, Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) all have something in common – they originate in animals then spread to humans. Those are probably familiar disease names as well, since they have been in the headlines with a large number of outbreaks in the last few years. Researchers from the university of Sydney in Australia are now warning that our “lack of knowledge” about these animal-to-human, or zoonotic type diseases pose a grave risk to human health. In an analyses of nearly 16,000 publications spanning the last 100 years, they found just 10 diseases account for about half of all the published research. According to the World Organization for Animal Health, there are 86 animal diseases that are required to be reported to OIE officials, and 21 of those is known to be transmittable to humans. The researchers are worried that by essentially ignoring the other diseases, humanity is in the dark about potential threats. “We know far less about the range of diseases that impact on animal health and welfare. This is particularly true for wildlife, which remains very poorly funded,” said co-author Dr. Anke Wiethoelter. “Paradoxically, this also means we know less about the diseases that could be a precursor to infectious diseases in humans.” Her and her colleagues are particularly concerned as livestock production becomes more intensive in an effort to feed an ever-growing population. This increased production puts more humans in close contact with livestock as it also puts more livestock in close proximity to wildlife. The researchers are urging scientists to focus on this increasing contact between wildlife and livestock to evaluate risks and improve responses if there is a disease epidemic. One example cited is the Hendra virus (HeV) in Australia, which has infected seven and killed four. It is transmitted from fruit bats to horses then to humans, but researchers don’t understand exactly how it is transmitted between bats and horses. If researchers have a better understanding of these diseases at all levels of the wildlife-livestock interface, they could maybe recognize potential human threats before they occur. Similar to bird-flu here in the U.S., many researchers believe if it were to make the jump to humans it would first make the jump to the hog population. Rem​em​ber, pork is the most popular meat in the world! It’s the “unknown” about how these disease transition and develop that has many inside health and science somewhat scared. I suspect these headlines will grow this fall when increased talk about “bird-flu” resumes.

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August-October Most Dangerous Part Of Hurricane Season

If you didn’t know, the 2015 hurricane season has begun and it’s off to a record start. Through July 13, there’s already been 11 named storms in the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and Atlantic basins combined this season. Perhaps the most stunning is the three named storms that formed in the central Pacific basin this July. If you remember, Tropical Storm Bill was the most significant causing flooding in the southern Plains, Ozarks and Ohio Valley. The all-time record for the number of named storms to form in any full season in the central Pacific basin is four, which happened in 1982 during the developing phase of what would become a strong El Nino. As we enter the peak season for hurricanes we need to pay attention as 93% of major hurricanes occur from August through October. Click the image below to see the full infographic.

This article is only an excerpt of the 7/31/15 Van Trump Report. Sign up for a free trial by clicking here.


World’s Most Valuable Sports Teams

Forbes recently released their annual list of “The World’s Most Valuable Sports Teams.”  For the third year in a row, soccer team Real Madrid took the top spot as the most valuable franchise, worth $3.26 billion. Football dominates the list though, with the NFL occupying 20 of the top spots. The 31 non-NFL teams on the list include 12 from MLB, 7 from soccer, 10 from the NBA, one from the NHL and one from Formula 1. The average current value of a team on the list is $1.75 billion, the highest since Forbes began tracking the data in 1998. Cost of admission to the 2015 list is also the highest ever at $1.15 billion, up from $856 million last year. Click the graphic for a larger view. (Source: Forbes)

This article is only an excerpt of the 7/30/15 Van Trump Report. Sign up for a free trial by clicking here.


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