Category: Corn (page 1 of 75)

Corn Growth Stages

Crop Progress w/e 6/18/17

The USDA left corn crop conditions “unchanged” at 67% rated “Good-to-Excellent” vs. 75% last year. Below are some of the specifics:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Kentucky +12% better than last year… +0% this week to 85% GD/EX 
  • Tennessee +10% better than last year… +3% this week to 86% GD/EX
  • Pennsylvania +6% better than last year…-2% this week to 82% GD/EX
  • Colorado +3% better than last year… -10% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Michigan +3% better than last year… +0% this week to 69% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +3% better than last year… +1% this week to 76% GD/EX
  • Minnesota +2% better than last year… +3% this week to 81% GD/EX
  • Texas same as last year… -2% this week to 74% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • Indiana -27% worse than last year… +1% this week to 45% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -25% worse than last year… +3% this week to 61% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -25% worse than last year… +4% this week to 49% GD/EX
  • Illinois -16% worse than last year… +1% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -15% worse than last year… +1% this week to 71% GD/EX
  • Ohio -12% worse than last year… +2% this week to 52% GD/EX
  • Kansas -8% worse than last year… -4% this week to 61% GD/EX
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… +4% this week to 63% GD/EX
  • Iowa -1% worse than last year… +1% this week to 78%GD/EX
  • Nebraska -1% worse than last year… +0% this week to 78% GD/EX

The USDA now estimates 67% of the soybean crop is in “Good-to-Excellent” condition compared to 66% last week and 73% last year.  Below are some specifics:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Arkansas +14% better than last year… +2% this week at 71% GD/EX 
  • North Carolina +12% better than last year… -2% this week at 80% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +10% better than last year… +11% this week at 86% GD/EX
  • Missouri +6% better than last year… +2% this week at 63% GD/EX 
  • Louisiana +4% better than last year… +4% this week at 80% GD/EX
  • Michigan +3% better than last year… +1% this week at 71% GD/EX
  • Kansas +2% better than last year… +7% this week at 67% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +1% better than last year… +1% this week at 78% GD/EX 
  • Minnesota +1% better than last year… -1% this week at 77% GD/EX 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • South Dakota -30% worse than last year… +5% better at 48% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -20% worse than last year… +2% this week at 58% GD/EX
  • Indiana -20% worse than last year… +1% this week at 52% GD/EX
  • Illinois -8% worse than last year… +1% this week at 67% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -7% worse than last year… +2% this week at 78% GD/EX
  • Iowa -6% worse than last year… +1% this week at 74% GD/EX
  • Ohio -6% worse than last year… +1% better at 58% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -5% worse than last year… -2% this week at 72% GD/EX
  • Mississippi -4% worse than last year… -2% this week at 63% GD/EX

Crop Progress for w/e 6/11/17

Corn Conditions: The USDA slightly adjusted crop-conditions lower by -1% to 67% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. From my perspective, I see the “Worse Than” group being much more impactful than the “Better Than” group. Hence even more reason to believe the U.S. yield needs to be worked lower. Below are this years conditions compared to last year:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Pennsylvania +18% better than last year…+2% this week to 84% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +16% better than last year… +3% this week to 85% GD/EX
  • Colorado +12% better than last year… +10 this week to 93% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +5% better than last year… +0% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Texas +2% better than last year… -3% this week to 76% GD/EX
  • Nebraska +1% better than last year… -1% this week to 78% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +1% better than last year… -2% this week to 75% GD/EX
  • Michigan same as last year… -1% this week to 69% GD/EX
  • Minnesota same as last year… +1% this week to 78% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • Indiana -29% worse than last year… -2 this week to 44% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -28% worse than last year… -9% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -27% worse than last year… -17% this week to 45% GD/EX
  • Illinois -17% worse than last year -1% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • Ohio -15% worse than last year… +1% this week to 50% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -15% worse than last year… +2% this week to 70% GD/EX
  • Missouri -13% worse than last year… +0% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Kansas -5% worse than last year… +4% this week to 65% GD/EX
  • Iowa -3% worse than last year… +0% this week to 77%GD/EX

Soybean Conditions: The first crop-condition estimate by the USDA however showed only 66% of U.S. soybeans rated “Good-to-Excellent” compared to 74% last year and compared to 67% the year prior. From my perspective, states experience “Worse Than” conditions compared to last year are more sever and bigger named production states than those showing “Better Than” conditions. Hence, similar to corn, there’s reasons for the bulls to argue for a reduction in yield, despite it being so early in the game.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Arkansas +15% better than last year… at 69% GD/EX 
  • North Carolina +6% better than last year… at 82% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +6% better than last year… at 75% GD/EX  
  • Kentucky +1% better than last year… at 77% GD/EX 
  • Minnesota +1% better than last year… at 78% GD/EX 
  • Louisiana same as last year… at 76% GD/EX 
  • Mississippi same as last year… at 65% GD/EX 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • South Dakota -32% worse than last year… at 43% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -25% worse than last year… at 56% GD/EX
  • Indiana -24% worse than last year… at 51% GD/EX
  • Ohio -11% worse than last year… at 57% GD/EX
  • Illinois -9% worse than last year… at 66% GD/EX
  • Iowa -8% worse than last year… at 73% GD/EX
  • Kansas -7% worse than last year… at 60% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -7% worse than last year… at 76% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -5% worse than last year… at 74% GD/EX
  • Michigan -4% worse than last year… at 70% GD/EX
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… at 61% GD/EX

Crop Progress for w/e 6/4/17

The USDA bumped conditions higher by +3% to 68% rated “Good-to-Excellent”.  Below are this years conditions compared to last year.

State Conditions Better Than Last Year

  • Pennsylvania +18% better than last year…+5% this week to 82% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +13% better than last year… -3% this week to 82% GD/EX
  • Texas +8% better than last year… +4% this week to 79% GD/EX
  • Iowa +7% better than last year… +4% this week to 77%GD/EX
  • Colorado +6% better than last year… +11 this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +4% better than last year… +2% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Nebraska +1% better than last year… +3% this week to 79% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +1% better than last year… -6% this week to 77% GD/EX
  • Michigan +1% better than last year… -5% this week to 70% GD/EX
  • Minnesota same as last year… +9% this week to 77% GD/EX

State Conditions Worse Than Last Year 

  • Indiana -26% worse than last year… +3 this week to 46% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -19% worse than last year… +1% this week to 67% GD/EX
  • Ohio -18% worse than last year… “unchanged” at 49% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -18% worse than last year… +7% this week to 68% GD/EX
  • Illinois -17% worse than last year +7% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -12% worse than last year… -5% this week to 62% GD/EX
  • Missouri -12% worse than last year… +6% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Kansas -7% worse than last year… +6% this week to 61% GD/EX

Soybean traders are looking at a U.S. planting pace that is now running ahead of schedule as the USDA shows 83% planted vs. the 5-year historical average of 79%.

States Running Behind 5-Year Planting Pace

  • Ohio -13% behind and still has 26% left to plant
  • Indiana -10% behind and still has 25% left to plant
  • Michigan -10% behind and still has 25% left to plant
  • Wisconsin -7% behind and still has 27% left to plant

States Running Ahead 5-Year Planting Pace

  • North Dakota +13% ahead and has only 6% left to plant
  • Missouri +11% ahead and has 29% left to plant
  • Arkansas +9% ahead and has only 15% left to plant
  • South Dakota +9% ahead and has only 8% left to plant
  • Minnesota +8% ahead and has only 6% left to plant
  • Iowa +7% ahead and has only 9% left to plant
  • Kentucky +6% ahead and has 40% left to plant
  • Louisiana +5% ahead and has only 4% left to plant
  • Illinois +4% ahead and has only 15% left to plant
  • Mississippi +4% ahead and has only 8% left to plant
  • North Carolina +4% ahead and has 43% left to plant
  • Kansas +2% ahead and has 41% left to plant
  • Tennessee +2% ahead and has 38% left to plant
  • Nebraska +1% ahead and has only 9% left to plant

USDA Supply and Demand Update, June 9, 2017

U.S. Grain Stocks 2016-17

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

2.295

2.287

2.215 – 2.360

2.295

Soybeans

0.450

0.433

0.400 – 0.458

0.435

Wheat

1.161

1.161

1.144 – 1.200

1.159

U.S Grain Stocks 2017-18

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

2.110

2.085

1.985 – 2.200

2.110

Soybeans

0.495

0.485

0.435 – 0.612

0.480

Wheat

0.924

0.911

0.860 – 0.995

0.914

World Grain Stocks 2016-17

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

224.59

224.00

221.50 – 226.80

223.90

Soybeans

93.21

90.79

90.14 – 92.35

90.14

Wheat

256.43

255.24

253.30 – 256.10

255.35

World Grain Stocks 2017-18

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

194.33

195.48

193.40 – 197.25

195.27

Soybeans

92.22

89.44

88.80 – 90.70

88.81

Wheat

261.19

257.77

254.80 – 260.00

258.29

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

All Wheat

1.824

1.815

1.795 – 1.833

1.820

All Winter
1.250

1.239

1.207 – 1.292

1.246

Hard Red Winter

0.743

0.731

0.704 – 0.783

0.737

Soft Red Winter

0.298

0.295

0.290 – 0.300

0.297

White Winter

0.209

0.214

0.208 – 0.222

0.212

South American Production

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Brazil Corn

97.00

96.48

96.00 – 98.00

96.00

Brazil Soybeans

114.00

112.24

111.60 – 113.20

111.60

Argentina Corn

40.00

40.29

40.00 – 42.00

40.00

Argentina Soybeans

57.80

57.40

56.90 – 58.20

57.00

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