Category: Soybeans (page 1 of 64)

Crop Progress w/e 6/18/17

The USDA left corn crop conditions “unchanged” at 67% rated “Good-to-Excellent” vs. 75% last year. Below are some of the specifics:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Kentucky +12% better than last year… +0% this week to 85% GD/EX 
  • Tennessee +10% better than last year… +3% this week to 86% GD/EX
  • Pennsylvania +6% better than last year…-2% this week to 82% GD/EX
  • Colorado +3% better than last year… -10% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Michigan +3% better than last year… +0% this week to 69% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +3% better than last year… +1% this week to 76% GD/EX
  • Minnesota +2% better than last year… +3% this week to 81% GD/EX
  • Texas same as last year… -2% this week to 74% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • Indiana -27% worse than last year… +1% this week to 45% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -25% worse than last year… +3% this week to 61% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -25% worse than last year… +4% this week to 49% GD/EX
  • Illinois -16% worse than last year… +1% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -15% worse than last year… +1% this week to 71% GD/EX
  • Ohio -12% worse than last year… +2% this week to 52% GD/EX
  • Kansas -8% worse than last year… -4% this week to 61% GD/EX
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… +4% this week to 63% GD/EX
  • Iowa -1% worse than last year… +1% this week to 78%GD/EX
  • Nebraska -1% worse than last year… +0% this week to 78% GD/EX

The USDA now estimates 67% of the soybean crop is in “Good-to-Excellent” condition compared to 66% last week and 73% last year.  Below are some specifics:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Arkansas +14% better than last year… +2% this week at 71% GD/EX 
  • North Carolina +12% better than last year… -2% this week at 80% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +10% better than last year… +11% this week at 86% GD/EX
  • Missouri +6% better than last year… +2% this week at 63% GD/EX 
  • Louisiana +4% better than last year… +4% this week at 80% GD/EX
  • Michigan +3% better than last year… +1% this week at 71% GD/EX
  • Kansas +2% better than last year… +7% this week at 67% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +1% better than last year… +1% this week at 78% GD/EX 
  • Minnesota +1% better than last year… -1% this week at 77% GD/EX 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • South Dakota -30% worse than last year… +5% better at 48% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -20% worse than last year… +2% this week at 58% GD/EX
  • Indiana -20% worse than last year… +1% this week at 52% GD/EX
  • Illinois -8% worse than last year… +1% this week at 67% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -7% worse than last year… +2% this week at 78% GD/EX
  • Iowa -6% worse than last year… +1% this week at 74% GD/EX
  • Ohio -6% worse than last year… +1% better at 58% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -5% worse than last year… -2% this week at 72% GD/EX
  • Mississippi -4% worse than last year… -2% this week at 63% GD/EX

Crop Progress for w/e 6/11/17

Corn Conditions: The USDA slightly adjusted crop-conditions lower by -1% to 67% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. From my perspective, I see the “Worse Than” group being much more impactful than the “Better Than” group. Hence even more reason to believe the U.S. yield needs to be worked lower. Below are this years conditions compared to last year:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Pennsylvania +18% better than last year…+2% this week to 84% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +16% better than last year… +3% this week to 85% GD/EX
  • Colorado +12% better than last year… +10 this week to 93% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +5% better than last year… +0% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Texas +2% better than last year… -3% this week to 76% GD/EX
  • Nebraska +1% better than last year… -1% this week to 78% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +1% better than last year… -2% this week to 75% GD/EX
  • Michigan same as last year… -1% this week to 69% GD/EX
  • Minnesota same as last year… +1% this week to 78% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • Indiana -29% worse than last year… -2 this week to 44% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -28% worse than last year… -9% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -27% worse than last year… -17% this week to 45% GD/EX
  • Illinois -17% worse than last year -1% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • Ohio -15% worse than last year… +1% this week to 50% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -15% worse than last year… +2% this week to 70% GD/EX
  • Missouri -13% worse than last year… +0% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Kansas -5% worse than last year… +4% this week to 65% GD/EX
  • Iowa -3% worse than last year… +0% this week to 77%GD/EX

Soybean Conditions: The first crop-condition estimate by the USDA however showed only 66% of U.S. soybeans rated “Good-to-Excellent” compared to 74% last year and compared to 67% the year prior. From my perspective, states experience “Worse Than” conditions compared to last year are more sever and bigger named production states than those showing “Better Than” conditions. Hence, similar to corn, there’s reasons for the bulls to argue for a reduction in yield, despite it being so early in the game.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Arkansas +15% better than last year… at 69% GD/EX 
  • North Carolina +6% better than last year… at 82% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +6% better than last year… at 75% GD/EX  
  • Kentucky +1% better than last year… at 77% GD/EX 
  • Minnesota +1% better than last year… at 78% GD/EX 
  • Louisiana same as last year… at 76% GD/EX 
  • Mississippi same as last year… at 65% GD/EX 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • South Dakota -32% worse than last year… at 43% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -25% worse than last year… at 56% GD/EX
  • Indiana -24% worse than last year… at 51% GD/EX
  • Ohio -11% worse than last year… at 57% GD/EX
  • Illinois -9% worse than last year… at 66% GD/EX
  • Iowa -8% worse than last year… at 73% GD/EX
  • Kansas -7% worse than last year… at 60% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -7% worse than last year… at 76% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -5% worse than last year… at 74% GD/EX
  • Michigan -4% worse than last year… at 70% GD/EX
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… at 61% GD/EX

Crop Progress for w/e 6/4/17

The USDA bumped conditions higher by +3% to 68% rated “Good-to-Excellent”.  Below are this years conditions compared to last year.

State Conditions Better Than Last Year

  • Pennsylvania +18% better than last year…+5% this week to 82% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +13% better than last year… -3% this week to 82% GD/EX
  • Texas +8% better than last year… +4% this week to 79% GD/EX
  • Iowa +7% better than last year… +4% this week to 77%GD/EX
  • Colorado +6% better than last year… +11 this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +4% better than last year… +2% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Nebraska +1% better than last year… +3% this week to 79% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +1% better than last year… -6% this week to 77% GD/EX
  • Michigan +1% better than last year… -5% this week to 70% GD/EX
  • Minnesota same as last year… +9% this week to 77% GD/EX

State Conditions Worse Than Last Year 

  • Indiana -26% worse than last year… +3 this week to 46% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -19% worse than last year… +1% this week to 67% GD/EX
  • Ohio -18% worse than last year… “unchanged” at 49% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -18% worse than last year… +7% this week to 68% GD/EX
  • Illinois -17% worse than last year +7% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -12% worse than last year… -5% this week to 62% GD/EX
  • Missouri -12% worse than last year… +6% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Kansas -7% worse than last year… +6% this week to 61% GD/EX

Soybean traders are looking at a U.S. planting pace that is now running ahead of schedule as the USDA shows 83% planted vs. the 5-year historical average of 79%.

States Running Behind 5-Year Planting Pace

  • Ohio -13% behind and still has 26% left to plant
  • Indiana -10% behind and still has 25% left to plant
  • Michigan -10% behind and still has 25% left to plant
  • Wisconsin -7% behind and still has 27% left to plant

States Running Ahead 5-Year Planting Pace

  • North Dakota +13% ahead and has only 6% left to plant
  • Missouri +11% ahead and has 29% left to plant
  • Arkansas +9% ahead and has only 15% left to plant
  • South Dakota +9% ahead and has only 8% left to plant
  • Minnesota +8% ahead and has only 6% left to plant
  • Iowa +7% ahead and has only 9% left to plant
  • Kentucky +6% ahead and has 40% left to plant
  • Louisiana +5% ahead and has only 4% left to plant
  • Illinois +4% ahead and has only 15% left to plant
  • Mississippi +4% ahead and has only 8% left to plant
  • North Carolina +4% ahead and has 43% left to plant
  • Kansas +2% ahead and has 41% left to plant
  • Tennessee +2% ahead and has 38% left to plant
  • Nebraska +1% ahead and has only 9% left to plant

USDA Supply and Demand Update, June 9, 2017

U.S. Grain Stocks 2016-17

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

2.295

2.287

2.215 – 2.360

2.295

Soybeans

0.450

0.433

0.400 – 0.458

0.435

Wheat

1.161

1.161

1.144 – 1.200

1.159

U.S Grain Stocks 2017-18

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

2.110

2.085

1.985 – 2.200

2.110

Soybeans

0.495

0.485

0.435 – 0.612

0.480

Wheat

0.924

0.911

0.860 – 0.995

0.914

World Grain Stocks 2016-17

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

224.59

224.00

221.50 – 226.80

223.90

Soybeans

93.21

90.79

90.14 – 92.35

90.14

Wheat

256.43

255.24

253.30 – 256.10

255.35

World Grain Stocks 2017-18

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Corn

194.33

195.48

193.40 – 197.25

195.27

Soybeans

92.22

89.44

88.80 – 90.70

88.81

Wheat

261.19

257.77

254.80 – 260.00

258.29

U.S. Winter Wheat Production

 

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

All Wheat

1.824

1.815

1.795 – 1.833

1.820

All Winter
1.250

1.239

1.207 – 1.292

1.246

Hard Red Winter

0.743

0.731

0.704 – 0.783

0.737

Soft Red Winter

0.298

0.295

0.290 – 0.300

0.297

White Winter

0.209

0.214

0.208 – 0.222

0.212

South American Production

June Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA May

Brazil Corn

97.00

96.48

96.00 – 98.00

96.00

Brazil Soybeans

114.00

112.24

111.60 – 113.20

111.60

Argentina Corn

40.00

40.29

40.00 – 42.00

40.00

Argentina Soybeans

57.80

57.40

56.90 – 58.20

57.00

How Much Corn & Soybeans Are Left To Plant?

The USDA showed 91% of the U.S. corn crop is now planted. Keep in mind there’s some question as to if this number includes or does not include acres that need to be replanted.  

Corn States Running Behind Schedule

  • Pennsylvania 25% remaining; -7% behind average pace.
  • Wisconsin 23% remaining; -9% behind average pace.
  • Indiana 19% remaining; -9% behind average pace.
  • Kansas 18% remaining; -11% behind average pace.
  • Ohio 18% remaining; -6% behind average pace.
  • Michigan 18% remaining; -4% behind average pace.
  • Colorado 11% remaining; -2% behind average pace.
  • Illinois 7% remaining; -3% behind average pace.
  • Nebraska 5% remaining; -2% behind average pace.

Corn States Running At or Ahead of Schedule

  • Tennessee 3% remaining; right on pace.
  • Iowa 3% remaining; +1% ahead of average pace.
  • Missouri 3% remaining; +4% ahead of average pace.
  • Minnesota 4% remaining; +2% ahead of average pace.
  • Texas 4% remaining; +4% ahead of average pace.
  • South Dakota 5% remaining; +1% ahead of average pace.
  • North Dakota 6% remaining; +6% ahead of average pace.
  • Kentucky 9% remaining; +1% ahead of average pace.

Corn Crop-Conditons Best to Worst: The USDA showed 65% of the U.S. crop as rated “Good-to-Excellent” which is well below last years initial rating of 72% and below the 5-year average of 71%. The concern is that conditions in some of the bigger production states like Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and Wisconsin are all about -20% points below last year. Conditions in Kansas and Ohio are also struggling compared to last year. In fact Indiana, Illinois, Ohio and Kansas are all reporting double digits in the “Poor-to-Very Poor” category. Below are some of the highlights compared to last year from best-to-worst:    

  • Kentucky 85% GD/EX last year 67%
  • North Carolina 84% GD/EX last year 78%
  • Tennessee 81% GD/EX last year 74%
  • Pennsylvania 77% GD/EX last year 63%
  • Nebraska 76% GD/EX last year 72%
  • Texas 75% GD/EX last year 72%
  • Michigan 75% GD/EX last year 70%
  • Iowa 73% GD/EX last year 77%
  • Colorado 72% GD/EX last year 74%
  • Minnesota 68% GD/EX last year 71%
  • South Dakota 67% GD/EX last year 75%
  • North Dakota 66% GD/EX last year 85%
  • Wisconsin 61% GD/EX last year 85%
  • Kansas 55% GD/EX last year 65%
  • Missouri 53% GD/EX last year 74%
  • Illinois 52% GD/EX last year 71%
  • Ohio 49% GD/EX last year 63%
  • Indiana 43% GD/EX last year 69%

USDA estimates 33% of the soybean acres still need to be planted.  

Soybean States Running Behind Schedule

  • Kansas 59% remaining; -5% behind average pace.
  • Wisconsin 55% remaining; -21% behind average pace.
  • Indian 46% remaining; -17% behind average pace. 
  • Ohio 46% remaining; -17% behind average pace.
  • Michigan 44% remaining; -12% behind average pace.
  • Illinois 38% remaining; -9% behind average pace.
  • Nebraska 24% remaining; -3% behind average pace.

Soybean States Running At or Ahead of Schedule

  • Louisiana 6% remaining; +8% ahead of average pace. 
  • Mississippi 11% remaining; +8% ahead of average pace.
  • North Dakota 17% remaining; +16% ahead of average pace.
  • Arkansas 19% remaining; +12% ahead of average pace.
  • Minnesota 19% remaining; +5% ahead of average pace.
  • Iowa 23% remaining; right on pace.
  • South Dakota 28% remaining; +2% ahead of average pace.
  • Missouri 46% remaining; +2% ahead of average pace.
  • Tennessee 47% remaining; +3% ahead of average pace.
  • Kentucky 55% remaining; +4% ahead of average pace.

Older posts

© 2017

Theme by Anders NorenUp ↑

Password Reset
Please enter your e-mail address. You will receive a new password via e-mail.