Category: USDA (page 1 of 70)

USDA Quarterly Stocks & Small Grains Report

U.S. Sept. 1, 2016/17 Grain Stocks

 

Sept.Est.

Avg. Trade Guess

Trade Range

USDA June 2017

USDA Sep. 2016

Corn

2.295

2.353

2.310 – 2.450

5.225

1.737

Soybeans

0.301

0.338

0.321 – 0.363

0.963

0.197

Wheat

2.253

2.205

2.083 – 2.495

1.184

2.545

U.S. Wheat Production

 

Sept. Est.

Avg. Trade Guess

Trade Range

USDA August

All Wheat

1.741

1.718

1.660 – 1.761

1.739

All Winter

1.269

1.286

1.267 – 1.319

1.287

Hard-Red Winter

0.750

0.758

0.749 – 0.765

0.758

Soft-Red Winter

0.292

0.305

0.286 – 0.316

0.306

White Winter

0.227

0.224

0.216 – 0.255

0.223

Other Spring

0.416

0.382

0.338 – 0.421

0.402

Durum

0.055

0.050

0.039 – 0.055

0.051

September 12, 2017 USDA WASDE Report

U.S. Production 2017/18

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug.

Corn Production

14.184

14.003

13.754 – 14.295

14.153

Corn Yield

169.9

167.9

165.5 – 171.2

169.5

Soybean Production

4.431

4.322

4.179 – 4.435

4.381

Soybean Yield

49.9

48.7

47.1 – 50.0

49.4

U.S Grain Stocks 2016/17

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug.

Corn

2.350

2.352

2.270 – 2.415

2.370

Soybeans

0.345

0.361

0.310 – 0.390

0.370

U.S Grain Stocks 2017/18

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug

Corn

2.335

2.125

1.898 – 2.447

2.273

Soybeans

0.475

0.439

0.325 – 0.540

0.475

Wheat

0.933

0.914

0.866 – 0.943

0.933

World Stocks 2016/17

 

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug

Corn

227.0

227.9

225.1 – 229.1

228.6

Sobyeans

96.0

96.7

95.5 – 97.3

97.0

World Stocks 2017/18

Sep. Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA Aug

Corn

202.5

197.8

189.4 – 203.0

200.9

Sobyeans

97.5

97.2

95.0 – 100.0

97.8

Wheat

263.1

264.3

258.0 – 268.0

264.7

Could South American Production Be Even Larger Next Year?

Below is the USDA data regarding South American corn and soybean production. There’s already starting to be more talk inside the trade that next years estimates are too conservative. Thoughts from those with boots on the ground in various parts of South America, barring any unforeseen weather complications, acres are going to be higher next year than many have been penciling into their forecast. There was talk a while back that second crop corn in Brazil was not going to be as heavily planted in 2018, but I’m starting hear extremely differing opinions. I suspect at some point the headlines will again start talking about yet another record South American crop.

 

How Do 2017 State Corn & Soybean Yields Compare To Record Years?

Crop Progress w/e 7/30/17

Corn “Good-to-Excellent” conditions were lowered to 61% from 62% the previous week and compared to 76% last year. Below are some specifics regarding current corn crop-conditions and comparisons to last week and last year.

States “IMPROVING” 

Colorado raised by +9% to 66% vs 83% last year 

Pennsylvania raised by +8% to 88% vs 60% last year

Indiana raised by +2% to 49% vs 77% last year

Kentucky raised by +1% to 80% vs 75% last year

Minnesota raised by +1% to 81% vs 85% last year 

North Carolina raised by +1% to 76% vs 64% last year

Ohio raised by +1% to 57% vs. 54% last year 

South Dakota raised by +1% to 29% vs 58% last year

States “UNCHANGED” 

Illinois “unchanged” at 63% vs 83% last year 

Michigan “unchanged” at 69% vs 58% last year  

Nebraska “unchanged” at 61% vs 77% last year

Wisconsin “unchanged” at 70% vs 87% last year

States “DETERIORATING”   

North Dakota lowered by -5% to 39% vs 79% last year

Texas lowered by -5% to 69% vs 57% last year

Tennessee lowered by -4% to 82% vs 64% last year 

Missouri lowered by -2% to 61% vs 76% last year

Kansas lowered by -3% to 57% vs 67% last year

Iowa lowered by -2% to 65% vs 83% last year

For Soybeans, the USDA raised crop conditions to 59% now rated “Good-to-Excellent” versus 57% last week and 72% last year.  Below are some specifics regarding current corn crop-conditions and comparisons to last week and last year.

States “IMPROVING” 

Illinois raised higher by + 7% to 66% vs 77% last year 

Mississippi raised by +7% to 69% vs 70% last year

Indiana raised by +4% to 51% vs 71% last year 

Kentucky raised by +3% to 73% vs 71% last year 

South Dakota raised by +3% to 28% vs 60% last year

Louisiana raised by +2% to 85% vs 79% last year 

Missouri raised by +2% to 65% vs 70% last year 

Wisconsin raised by +2% to 74% vs 88% last year

Arkansas raised by +1% to 70% vs 58% last year

Michigan raised by +1% to 66% vs 58% last year 

Minnesota raised by +1% to 73% vs 80% last year

Nebraska raised +1% to 60% vs 76% last year 

Ohio raised by +1% to 48% vs 58% last year 

States “DETERIORATING”

North Dakota lowered by -7% to 34% vs 73% last year

North Carolina lowered by -7% to 64% vs 68% last year

Tennessee lowered by -7% to 72% vs 74% last year

Kansas lowered by -4% to 51% vs. 58% last year 

Iowa lowered by -2% to 60% vs 83% last year 

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