Category: USDA (page 1 of 69)

Crop Progress w/e 7/30/17

Corn “Good-to-Excellent” conditions were lowered to 61% from 62% the previous week and compared to 76% last year. Below are some specifics regarding current corn crop-conditions and comparisons to last week and last year.

States “IMPROVING” 

Colorado raised by +9% to 66% vs 83% last year 

Pennsylvania raised by +8% to 88% vs 60% last year

Indiana raised by +2% to 49% vs 77% last year

Kentucky raised by +1% to 80% vs 75% last year

Minnesota raised by +1% to 81% vs 85% last year 

North Carolina raised by +1% to 76% vs 64% last year

Ohio raised by +1% to 57% vs. 54% last year 

South Dakota raised by +1% to 29% vs 58% last year

States “UNCHANGED” 

Illinois “unchanged” at 63% vs 83% last year 

Michigan “unchanged” at 69% vs 58% last year  

Nebraska “unchanged” at 61% vs 77% last year

Wisconsin “unchanged” at 70% vs 87% last year

States “DETERIORATING”   

North Dakota lowered by -5% to 39% vs 79% last year

Texas lowered by -5% to 69% vs 57% last year

Tennessee lowered by -4% to 82% vs 64% last year 

Missouri lowered by -2% to 61% vs 76% last year

Kansas lowered by -3% to 57% vs 67% last year

Iowa lowered by -2% to 65% vs 83% last year

For Soybeans, the USDA raised crop conditions to 59% now rated “Good-to-Excellent” versus 57% last week and 72% last year.  Below are some specifics regarding current corn crop-conditions and comparisons to last week and last year.

States “IMPROVING” 

Illinois raised higher by + 7% to 66% vs 77% last year 

Mississippi raised by +7% to 69% vs 70% last year

Indiana raised by +4% to 51% vs 71% last year 

Kentucky raised by +3% to 73% vs 71% last year 

South Dakota raised by +3% to 28% vs 60% last year

Louisiana raised by +2% to 85% vs 79% last year 

Missouri raised by +2% to 65% vs 70% last year 

Wisconsin raised by +2% to 74% vs 88% last year

Arkansas raised by +1% to 70% vs 58% last year

Michigan raised by +1% to 66% vs 58% last year 

Minnesota raised by +1% to 73% vs 80% last year

Nebraska raised +1% to 60% vs 76% last year 

Ohio raised by +1% to 48% vs 58% last year 

States “DETERIORATING”

North Dakota lowered by -7% to 34% vs 73% last year

North Carolina lowered by -7% to 64% vs 68% last year

Tennessee lowered by -7% to 72% vs 74% last year

Kansas lowered by -4% to 51% vs. 58% last year 

Iowa lowered by -2% to 60% vs 83% last year 

Crop Progress w/e 7/23

The USDA lowered their corn crop conditions estimate from 64% down to 62% now rated “good-to-excellent” vs 76% last year. Below are some specifics regarding current corn crop-conditions and comparisons to last week and last year:

States Where Conditions Improved Last Week 

  • Wisconsin improved +4% to 70% vs 86% last year
  • Michigan improved by +3% to 69% vs 56% last year 
  • Ohio improved +2% to 56% vs. 60% last year 
  • Texas improved +2% to 74% vs 59% last year
  • Illinois improved by +1% to 63% vs 82% last year
  • Kansas improved by +1% to 60% vs 67% last year
  • Minnesota improved by +1% to 80% vs 84% last year
  • Indiana “unchanged” at 47% vs 75% last year

States Where Conditions Deteriorated Last Week 

  • Colorado lowered -10% to 57% vs 79% last year 
  • Pennsylvania lowered -9% to 80% vs 62% last year
  • Missouri lowered by -6% to 63% vs 74% last year
  • Kentucky lowered -5% to 79% vs 73% last year
  • North Carolina lowered -5% to 75% vs 66% last year
  • Tennessee lowered-5% to 86% vs 65% last year 
  • Nebraska lowered -4% to 61% vs 79% last year
  • Iowa lowered by -3% to 68% vs 82% last year
  • South Dakota lowered -2% to 28% vs 60% last year
  • North Dakota lowered -1% to 44% vs 78% last year

The USDA dropped weekly soybean crop conditions -4%, from 61% down to 57% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. Below are some specifics regarding current corn crop- conditions and comparisons to last week and last year.

States Where Conditions Improved Last Week 

  • Louisiana improved +2% to 83% vs 70% last year 
  • North Dakota improved by +1% to 41% vs 71% last year
  • Wisconsin improved by +1% to 72% vs 86% last year

States Where Conditions Deteriorated Last Week  

  • Illinois lowered -8% to 59% vs 77% last year 
  • Kentucky lowered -7% to 70% vs 70% last year 
  • Mississippi lowered -5% to 62% vs 65% last year
  • Tennessee lowered -5% to 79% vs 71% last year
  • Kansas lowered -4% to 55% vs. 56% last year
  • North Carolina lowered -4% to 71% vs 69% last year  
  • South Dakota lowered -4% to 25% vs 61% last year
  • Michigan lowered -3% to 65% vs 59% last year 
  • Ohio lowered -3% to 47% vs 64% last year 
  • Arkansas lowered -2% to 69% vs 57% last year 
  • Indiana lowered -2% to 47% vs 73% last year 
  • Missouri lowered -2% to 63% vs 68% last year 
  • Nebraska lowered -4% to 69% vs 77% last year 
  • Iowa lowered -1% to 62% vs 81% last year 
  • Minnesota “unchanged” at 72% vs 78% last year

Crop Conditions w/e 7-9-2017

The USDA adjusted their weekly crop-condition estimate lower from 68% down to 65% rated “Good-to-Excellent”, which compares to 76% rated “Good-to-Excellent” last year at this time. Inside the data you can see that states showing conditions better than last year account for just 9.35 million planted acres. On the flip side, states showing conditions worse than last year account for 74.3 million planted acres. Below are some other interesting thoughts:

South Dakota, North Dakota, and Indianathe states reporting conditions anywhere from -26% to -30% worse than last year, account for a combined 14.4 million planted acres, or about 16% of our total U.S. corn acres planted. Ironically, they also combine to account for about 15% of our total U.S. corn production. 

Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado, all three states showing conditions -17% worse than last year, account for a combined 8.95 million acres, or about 10% of our planted corn acres. 

Illinois and Nebraska, both states now reporting double-digit drops in conditions compared to last year, accounting for a combined 20.9 million acres, or about 23% of our total U.S. corn acres. Combined they actually account for about 26% of our nations total corn production.

Iowa’s conditions are also starting to deteriorate, as state that last year produced over 18% of our nations corn. Keep in mind Iowa produced the most corn in the United States in 2016 followed by Illinois & Nebraska. Iowa and Illinois both produced over 2 billion bushels in 2016. Followed by Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, South Dakota, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio and North Dakota.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year… Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 9.35 Million

  • North Carolina +15% better than last year… 82% vs. 67% GD/EX – 0.880 million acres planted. 
  • Kentucky +13% better than last year… 87% vs. 74% GD/EX  – 1.35 Million acres planted. 
  • Tennessee +13% better than last year… 91% vs. 78% GD/EX – 0.840 Million acres planted
  • Michigan +8% better than last year… 67% vs. 59% GD/EX – 2.5 Million acres planted. 
  • Pennsylvania +5% better than last year… 81% vs. 76% GD/EX – 1.4 Million acres planted. 
  • Texas +1% better than last year… 67% vs. 68% GD/EX – 2.4 Million acres planted. 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year…  Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 74.30 Million

  • South Dakota -30% worse than last year… 37% vs. 67% GD/EX – 5.2 Million acres planted  
  • North Dakota -26% worse than last year… 52% vs. 78% GD/EX – 3.7 Million acres planted.
  • Indiana -26% worse than last year… 48% vs. 74% GD/EX – 5.5 Million acres planted.
  • Ohio -17% worse than last year… 53% vs. 70% GD/EX – 3.5 Million acres planted. 
  • Colorado -17% worse than last year… 67% vs. 84% GD/EX – 1.4 Million acres planted. 
  • Wisconsin -17% worse than last year… 69% vs. 86% GD/EX – 4.05 Million acres planted.
  • Illinois -13% worse than last year… 63% vs. 76% GD/EX – 11.1 Million acres planted. 
  • Nebraska -12% worse than last year… -68% vs. 80% GD/EX – 9.8 Million acres planted.
  • Kansas -6% worse than last year… 61% vs. 67% GD/EX – 5.3 Million acres planted. 
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… 68% vs. 71% GD/EX – 3.25 Million acres planted. 
  • Iowa -2% worse than last year… 77% vs. 79% GD/EX – 13.5 Million acres planted. 
  • Minnesota -1% worse than last year… 80% vs. 81% GD/EX – 8.0 Million acres planted. 

The USDA further lowered crop-conditions, which are down from 64% last week to 62% rated “Good-to-Excellent” this week.  Inside the data you can see that states showing conditions better than last year account for just 15.9 million planted acres. On the flip side, states showing conditions worse than last year account for 69.5 million planted acres. Below are some other very interesting thoughts:

South Dakota, North Dakota, and Indiana, the states reporting conditions anywhere from -22% to -35% worse than last year, account for 18.5 million planted acres, or about 20% of our total U.S. soybean acres planted. 

Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin, all three states now showing conditions down double-digits compared to last year, account for 22.85 million acres, or about 25% of our total soybean acres. Keep in mind last years top producing soybean state, Illinois, is close to joining the crowd, as conditions are now -8% worse than last year.

States in Order of Top Production vs. Last Year: IL 592,950; IA 571,725; MN 393,750; IN 324,300; NE 314,150; MO 271,460; OH 263,780; SD 255,915; ND 249,000. As you can see from the data above, a lot of the top-producing soybean states are witnessing extremely tough conditions. Several sources inside the trade believe, even though it’s still extremely early, and we won’t know until late-August or perhaps mid-September, there’s certainly a possibility that the U.S. yield could fall below 46 or perhaps even 45 bushels per acre. Numbers that would clearly excite the bulls and paint a much different picture from the balance sheet.    

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year…  Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 15.9 Million

  • Arkansas +14% better than last year… 70% vs. 56% GD/EX – 3.5 Million acres planted. 
  • North Carolina +11% better than last year… 79% vs. 68% GD/EX – 1.7 Million acres planted. 
  • Kansas +7% better than last year… 64% vs. 57% GD/EX – 4.75 Million acres planted. 
  • Tennessee +7% better than last year… 81% vs. 74% GD/EX – 1.75 Million acres planted. 
  • Michigan +6% better than last year… 65% vs. 59% GD/EX – 2.3 Million acres planted. 
  • Kentucky +2% better than last year… 78% vs. 76% GD/EX – 1.9 Million acres planted. 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year…  Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 69.50 Million

  • South Dakota -35% worse than last year… 34% vs. 69% GD/EX – 5.4 Million acres planted. 
  • North Dakota -26% worse than last year… 47% vs. 73% GD/EX – 7.2 Million acres planted. 
  • Indiana -22% worse than last year… 50% vs. 72%GD/EX – 5.9 Million acres planted. 
  • – 5.0 Million acres planted.
  • Nebraska -12% worse than last year… 66% vs. 78% GD/EX – 5.7 Million acres planted.
  • Wisconsin -11% worse than last year… 74% vs. 85% GD/EX – 2.15 Million acres planted. 
  • Iowa -10% worse than last year… 67% vs. 77% GD/EX – 10.0 Million acres planted. 
  • Illinois -8% worse than last year… 66% vs. 74% GD/EX – 10.4 Million acres planted. 
  • Louisiana -7% worse than last year… 79% vs. 72% GD/EX – 1.3 Million acres planted. 
  • Mississippi 3% worse than last year… 65% vs. 68% GD/EX – 2.25 Million acres planted. 
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… 62% vs. 65% GD/EX – 6.0 Million acres planted. 
  • Minnesota -2% worse than last year… 73% vs. 75% GD/EX – 8.2 Million acres planted. 

USDA Supply and Demand July 12, 2017

U.S Grain Stocks 2016/17

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

2.370

2.321

2.235 – 2.375

2.295

Soybeans

0.410

0.430

0.400 – 0.465

0.450

U.S Grain Stocks 2017/18

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

2.325

2.181

1.921 – 2.398

2.110

Soybeans

0.460

0.473

0.374 – 0.513

0.495

Wheat

0.938

0.876

0.757 – 0.957

0.924

World Stocks 2016/17

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

227.51

225.72

223.80 – 228.00

224.59

Sobyeans

94.78

93.12

92.30 – 94.00

93.21

Wheat

258.05

255.35

249.00 – 257.00

256.43

World Stocks 2017/18

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn

200.81

195.33

190.00 – 198.77

194.33

Sobyeans

93.53

92.14

90.30 – 93.00

92.22

Wheat

260.60

257.36

250.00 – 262.00

261.19

U.S. New-Crop Production

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

Corn Production

14.255

14.126

13.841 – 14.253

14.065

Corn Yield

170.7

169.6

166.8 – 170.7

170.7

Soybean Production

4.260

4.243

4.164 – 4.260

4.255

Soybean Yield

48.0

47.9

47.0 – 49.0

48.0

U.S. Wheat Production

July Est.

Avg. Trade Est.

Trade Range

USDA June

All Wheat

1.760

1.748

1.634 – 1.834

1.824

All Winter

1.279

1.261

1.237 – 1.280

1.250

Hard Red Winter

0.758

0.745

0.693 – 0.775

0.743

Soft Red Winter

0.306

0.303

0.296 – 0.332

0.298

White Winter

0.216

0.210

0.199 – 0.218

0.209

Other Spring

0.423

0.416

0.305 – 0.470

na

Durum

0.057

0.078

0.065 – 0.090

na

Crop Progress w/e 6/25/17

USDA reported yesterday that crop-conditions improved last week in eight states, fell in seven states, and were left “unchanged” in three states. Interestingly conditions in Iowa and Missouri have climbed and are now the same as last year. Conditions in Indiana, North and South Dakota, and Wisconsin are still much worse than last year. I think the bears are going to want to stop and take a look before driving prices much lower.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Tennessee +17% better than last year… +1% this week to 87% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +13% better than last year… +0% this week to 85% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +9% better than last year… +1% this week to 77% GD/EX
  • Pennsylvania +8% better than last year… +3% this week to 85% GD/EX
  • Colorado +3% better than last year… +0% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Michigan +4% better than last year… -2% this week to 67% GD/EX

States Same As Last Year

  • Iowa same as last year… +1% this week to 79%GD/EX
  • Missouri same as last year… +3% this week to 66% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year

  • Indiana -27% worse than last year… +1% this week to 46% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -27% worse than last year… -3% this week to 46% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -25% worse than last year… -5% this week to 56% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -17% worse than last year… -2% this week to 69% GD/EX
  • Illinois -9% worse than last year… +3% this week to 62% GD/EX
  • Ohio -9% worse than last year… +6% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -5% worse than last year… -4% this week to 74% GD/EX
  • Kansas -4% worse than last year… +0% this week to 61% GD/EX
  • Texas -4% worse than last year… -4% this week to 70% GD/EX
  • Minnesota -2% worse than last year… -3% this week to 78% GD/EX

Soybean bulls are happy to see the USDA lower crop-conditions from 67% to 66% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. Conditions in South Dakota fell last week by -9%, Louisiana by -7%, North Dakota and Wisconsin by -4%, Arkansas and Nebraska by -2%, Indiana and Minnesota by -1%. Conditions improved +3% in Illinois and North Carolina, +2% in Ohio, Kansas and Mississippi, and +1% in Kentucky and Tennessee.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • North Carolina +16% better than last year… +3% this week at 83% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +15% better than last year… +1% this week at 87% GD/EX
  • Arkansas +13% better than last year… -2% this week at 69% GD/EX
  • Kansas +10% better than last year… +2% this week at 69% GD/EX
  • Missouri +7% better than last year… +1% this week at 64% GD/EX
  • Michigan +6% better than last year… -2% this week at 69% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +1% better than last year… +1% this week at 79% GD/EX
  • Minnesota +1% better than last year… -1% this week at 76% GD/EX
  • Mississippi +1% better than last year… +2% this week at 65% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year

  • South Dakota -36% worse than last year… -9% this week at 39% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -24% worse than last year… -5% this week at 53% GD/EX
  • Indiana -23% worse than last year… -1% this week at 51% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -10% worse than last year… -4% this week at 74% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -8% worse than last year… -2% this week at 70% GD/EX
  • Ohio -7% worse than last year… +2% this week at 60% GD/EX
  • Iowa -3% worse than last year… +0% this week at 74% GD/EX
  • Louisiana -3% worse than last year… -7% this week at 73% GD/EX
  • Illinois -1% worse than last year… +3% this week at 70% GD/EX
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