Category: Weather (page 1 of 47)

Earth’s Two Warmest March’s On Record

Once again, global temperatures continue to push higher. The recent highs in March continue a trend of record or near-record setting temperature anomalies. Global surface temperatures in March of 2017 were the second warmest for any March on record dating back to the late-19th century. NASA’s Goddard Institute calculates the Earth’s mean temperature over land and water. This past March was +1.12 degrees C above average, second only to March 2016’s +1.27 degree departure from average drawn from 137 years of record keeping. NOAA’s most recent “State of the Climate” report also found March 2017 to be the second warmest March in their dataset since 1880, +1.05 degrees Celsius above average. The Japanese Meteorological Agency also found last month to be the second warmest March in its records. In fact this past March temperatures were the fourth highest of any month on record in NASA’s database, and fifth highest in NOAA’s records. Taken together, the first three months of 2017 are the planet’s second warmest January through March. Also interesting is the fact NOAA has reported this March was the first time a monthly departure from average topped +1 degree C without an active El Nino in play. Below are a few more noteworthy findings from NOAA’s State of the Climate report for March:

  • Did Something Change In 2015? Before October 2015, not one of the 1,629 months in NASA’s database dating to 1880 had a warm temperature anomaly of +1 degree C. Since then, eight of the past 18 months have seen such warm global anomalies, and five of those months occurred consecutively from December 2015 through April 2016.

  • Hottest: Austria set a record for its warmest March, dating back over 250 years. Germany also surpassed their previous record for the month of March. France tied their hottest March. Switzerland recorded its second warmest March and England had its third warmest March. Australia had its third warmest March in 108 years, while NOAA also found most of northern Russia had a record warm March.

  • Coldest: Interestingly Alaska experienced its coldest March in the past decade

This is just a small excerpt of the full Van Trump Report that I send out every day. To find out what you’re missing, sign up for a FREE 30-day trial.

Is This Wild Weather Pattern A Preview Of What’s To Come?

It’s tough to argue that weather has been anything but “normal” as of late, leading several insiders, including myself, to wonder how “normal” growing conditions here in the U.S. will be during the next few months? Think about this, it’s the first time ever in recorded history that Chicago has experienced six consecutive days with temps in the 60s during the month of February. St. Louis and many other Midwestern towns across the country have also been experiencing record setting temps. In fact some southern towns have reported temperature readings reaching near 90 degrees. The question that many are now wondering is if an abnormally warm winter could increase the odds of an abnormally warm summer? We are already seeing some of the warmest soil temp readings ever recorded at this time of year for many key production areas. It certainly makes you wonder how it all plays out?

Comparing Drought Conditions At The Start Of The Last 8 Years

I thought it would be interesting to stack the past several years of drought maps next to one another for comparison. I selected one of the first maps of each new year dating back to 2010. I’m not really certain what conclusion you would like to make, but form my perspective we are starting off 2017 with drought like conditions somewhat surrounding key production areas. There’s no real scientific way of forecasting the exact weather or soil conditions from now to June, but if dry conditions start to expand the trade could start taking a much closer look. 

This is just a small excerpt of the full Van Trump Report that I send out every day. To find out what you’re missing, sign up for a FREE 30-day trial.

January prices in 2016 started just above $3.50 per bushel, made a high in June just under $4.40 per bushel, then tested the lows near $3.00 per bushel in September. Finished the year just above $3.50.

January prices started just under $4.00 per bushel, by July we had rallied to a high just over $4.40 per bushel, but ended the year back down closer to $3.50.

January prices started out around $4.25, by April they had traded north of $5.00 per bushel only to end the year back sub-$4.00 per bushel.

January 2013 prices started above $7.00 per bushel, by year end the drought breaking rains and good good growing season had driven prices back down to near $4.00 per bushel.

January of 2102 prices started near $6.00 per bushel, by August we ere trying back north of $8.00 on the heels of a severe drought across most of the entire Midwest.

January of 2011 prices traded around $6.25 per bushel, by June of 2011 prices had exploded to nearly $8.00 per bushel. Only to fall back to sub-$6.00 by year end.

January thru July of 2010 prices were trading between $3.25 and $4.00 per bushel. By the end of the year corn prices had pushed north of $6.00 per bushel.

*Fnd more information and detailed maps at The National Drought Mitigation Center

Corn Bulls Hoping For A South American Weather Premium

Corn bulls will be trying to add to last weeks +10 cent rally. Several insiders argue that we are into a post-harvest period where the market tends to historically show some signs of strength. Perhaps it’s just because many of the topics that have been heavily debated i.e. U.S. production and South American acreage, become more of a fact rather than a guess. As a producer I’m keeping an extremely close eye on the new-crop DEC17 contract as it trades near $3.90 per bushel. Keep in mind we haven’t seen the new-crop contract trade above $3.96^4 since late-June. All eyes are now on South America. If the dry conditions continue, I could certainly see the market start to talk about more of a yield drag, in turn the trade may look to add some additional risk-premium. Stay tuned and fully engaged with the market. I’m thinking we could see a very important window of opportunity open during the next couple of weeks. Don’t let the lack of U.S. farming and holiday trading lull you to sleep!


Will Wheat Get Any Kind Of Weather Boost On Dryness In The South?

There’s a bit of a weather story brewing here in the U.S., but most aren’t giving it much weight as the crop is about to go into dormancy and as always tends to have nine-lives. I included a weather graphic below that illustrates how dry the topsoil has become in many key locations. As you can see the western Plains and the areas to the South are being the most heavily impacted. I should note that some forecasters are penciling in a bit more moisture in the days ahead, but many are still question total coverage. I will continue to closely monitor weather here in the U.S. as well as some weather concerns brewing in Argentina.


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