The USDA adjusted their weekly crop-condition estimate lower from 68% down to 65% rated “Good-to-Excellent”, which compares to 76% rated “Good-to-Excellent” last year at this time. Inside the data you can see that states showing conditions better than last year account for just 9.35 million planted acres. On the flip side, states showing conditions worse than last year account for 74.3 million planted acres. Below are some other interesting thoughts:

South Dakota, North Dakota, and Indianathe states reporting conditions anywhere from -26% to -30% worse than last year, account for a combined 14.4 million planted acres, or about 16% of our total U.S. corn acres planted. Ironically, they also combine to account for about 15% of our total U.S. corn production. 

Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado, all three states showing conditions -17% worse than last year, account for a combined 8.95 million acres, or about 10% of our planted corn acres. 

Illinois and Nebraska, both states now reporting double-digit drops in conditions compared to last year, accounting for a combined 20.9 million acres, or about 23% of our total U.S. corn acres. Combined they actually account for about 26% of our nations total corn production.

Iowa’s conditions are also starting to deteriorate, as state that last year produced over 18% of our nations corn. Keep in mind Iowa produced the most corn in the United States in 2016 followed by Illinois & Nebraska. Iowa and Illinois both produced over 2 billion bushels in 2016. Followed by Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, South Dakota, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio and North Dakota.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year… Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 9.35 Million

  • North Carolina +15% better than last year… 82% vs. 67% GD/EX – 0.880 million acres planted. 
  • Kentucky +13% better than last year… 87% vs. 74% GD/EX  – 1.35 Million acres planted. 
  • Tennessee +13% better than last year… 91% vs. 78% GD/EX – 0.840 Million acres planted
  • Michigan +8% better than last year… 67% vs. 59% GD/EX – 2.5 Million acres planted. 
  • Pennsylvania +5% better than last year… 81% vs. 76% GD/EX – 1.4 Million acres planted. 
  • Texas +1% better than last year… 67% vs. 68% GD/EX – 2.4 Million acres planted. 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year…  Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 74.30 Million

  • South Dakota -30% worse than last year… 37% vs. 67% GD/EX – 5.2 Million acres planted  
  • North Dakota -26% worse than last year… 52% vs. 78% GD/EX – 3.7 Million acres planted.
  • Indiana -26% worse than last year… 48% vs. 74% GD/EX – 5.5 Million acres planted.
  • Ohio -17% worse than last year… 53% vs. 70% GD/EX – 3.5 Million acres planted. 
  • Colorado -17% worse than last year… 67% vs. 84% GD/EX – 1.4 Million acres planted. 
  • Wisconsin -17% worse than last year… 69% vs. 86% GD/EX – 4.05 Million acres planted.
  • Illinois -13% worse than last year… 63% vs. 76% GD/EX – 11.1 Million acres planted. 
  • Nebraska -12% worse than last year… -68% vs. 80% GD/EX – 9.8 Million acres planted.
  • Kansas -6% worse than last year… 61% vs. 67% GD/EX – 5.3 Million acres planted. 
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… 68% vs. 71% GD/EX – 3.25 Million acres planted. 
  • Iowa -2% worse than last year… 77% vs. 79% GD/EX – 13.5 Million acres planted. 
  • Minnesota -1% worse than last year… 80% vs. 81% GD/EX – 8.0 Million acres planted. 

The USDA further lowered crop-conditions, which are down from 64% last week to 62% rated “Good-to-Excellent” this week.  Inside the data you can see that states showing conditions better than last year account for just 15.9 million planted acres. On the flip side, states showing conditions worse than last year account for 69.5 million planted acres. Below are some other very interesting thoughts:

South Dakota, North Dakota, and Indiana, the states reporting conditions anywhere from -22% to -35% worse than last year, account for 18.5 million planted acres, or about 20% of our total U.S. soybean acres planted. 

Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin, all three states now showing conditions down double-digits compared to last year, account for 22.85 million acres, or about 25% of our total soybean acres. Keep in mind last years top producing soybean state, Illinois, is close to joining the crowd, as conditions are now -8% worse than last year.

States in Order of Top Production vs. Last Year: IL 592,950; IA 571,725; MN 393,750; IN 324,300; NE 314,150; MO 271,460; OH 263,780; SD 255,915; ND 249,000. As you can see from the data above, a lot of the top-producing soybean states are witnessing extremely tough conditions. Several sources inside the trade believe, even though it’s still extremely early, and we won’t know until late-August or perhaps mid-September, there’s certainly a possibility that the U.S. yield could fall below 46 or perhaps even 45 bushels per acre. Numbers that would clearly excite the bulls and paint a much different picture from the balance sheet.    

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year…  Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 15.9 Million

  • Arkansas +14% better than last year… 70% vs. 56% GD/EX – 3.5 Million acres planted. 
  • North Carolina +11% better than last year… 79% vs. 68% GD/EX – 1.7 Million acres planted. 
  • Kansas +7% better than last year… 64% vs. 57% GD/EX – 4.75 Million acres planted. 
  • Tennessee +7% better than last year… 81% vs. 74% GD/EX – 1.75 Million acres planted. 
  • Michigan +6% better than last year… 65% vs. 59% GD/EX – 2.3 Million acres planted. 
  • Kentucky +2% better than last year… 78% vs. 76% GD/EX – 1.9 Million acres planted. 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year…  Total Combined Acres Planted For The States Below = 69.50 Million

  • South Dakota -35% worse than last year… 34% vs. 69% GD/EX – 5.4 Million acres planted. 
  • North Dakota -26% worse than last year… 47% vs. 73% GD/EX – 7.2 Million acres planted. 
  • Indiana -22% worse than last year… 50% vs. 72%GD/EX – 5.9 Million acres planted. 
  • – 5.0 Million acres planted.
  • Nebraska -12% worse than last year… 66% vs. 78% GD/EX – 5.7 Million acres planted.
  • Wisconsin -11% worse than last year… 74% vs. 85% GD/EX – 2.15 Million acres planted. 
  • Iowa -10% worse than last year… 67% vs. 77% GD/EX – 10.0 Million acres planted. 
  • Illinois -8% worse than last year… 66% vs. 74% GD/EX – 10.4 Million acres planted. 
  • Louisiana -7% worse than last year… 79% vs. 72% GD/EX – 1.3 Million acres planted. 
  • Mississippi 3% worse than last year… 65% vs. 68% GD/EX – 2.25 Million acres planted. 
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… 62% vs. 65% GD/EX – 6.0 Million acres planted. 
  • Minnesota -2% worse than last year… 73% vs. 75% GD/EX – 8.2 Million acres planted.