Corn Conditions: The USDA slightly adjusted crop-conditions lower by -1% to 67% rated “Good-to-Excellent”. From my perspective, I see the “Worse Than” group being much more impactful than the “Better Than” group. Hence even more reason to believe the U.S. yield needs to be worked lower. Below are this years conditions compared to last year:

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Pennsylvania +18% better than last year…+2% this week to 84% GD/EX
  • Kentucky +16% better than last year… +3% this week to 85% GD/EX
  • Colorado +12% better than last year… +10 this week to 93% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +5% better than last year… +0% this week to 83% GD/EX
  • Texas +2% better than last year… -3% this week to 76% GD/EX
  • Nebraska +1% better than last year… -1% this week to 78% GD/EX
  • North Carolina +1% better than last year… -2% this week to 75% GD/EX
  • Michigan same as last year… -1% this week to 69% GD/EX
  • Minnesota same as last year… +1% this week to 78% GD/EX

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • Indiana -29% worse than last year… -2 this week to 44% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -28% worse than last year… -9% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • South Dakota -27% worse than last year… -17% this week to 45% GD/EX
  • Illinois -17% worse than last year -1% this week to 58% GD/EX
  • Ohio -15% worse than last year… +1% this week to 50% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -15% worse than last year… +2% this week to 70% GD/EX
  • Missouri -13% worse than last year… +0% this week to 59% GD/EX
  • Kansas -5% worse than last year… +4% this week to 65% GD/EX
  • Iowa -3% worse than last year… +0% this week to 77%GD/EX

Soybean Conditions: The first crop-condition estimate by the USDA however showed only 66% of U.S. soybeans rated “Good-to-Excellent” compared to 74% last year and compared to 67% the year prior. From my perspective, states experience “Worse Than” conditions compared to last year are more sever and bigger named production states than those showing “Better Than” conditions. Hence, similar to corn, there’s reasons for the bulls to argue for a reduction in yield, despite it being so early in the game.

State Conditions “Better Than” Last Year

  • Arkansas +15% better than last year… at 69% GD/EX 
  • North Carolina +6% better than last year… at 82% GD/EX
  • Tennessee +6% better than last year… at 75% GD/EX  
  • Kentucky +1% better than last year… at 77% GD/EX 
  • Minnesota +1% better than last year… at 78% GD/EX 
  • Louisiana same as last year… at 76% GD/EX 
  • Mississippi same as last year… at 65% GD/EX 

State Conditions “Worse Than” Last Year 

  • South Dakota -32% worse than last year… at 43% GD/EX
  • North Dakota -25% worse than last year… at 56% GD/EX
  • Indiana -24% worse than last year… at 51% GD/EX
  • Ohio -11% worse than last year… at 57% GD/EX
  • Illinois -9% worse than last year… at 66% GD/EX
  • Iowa -8% worse than last year… at 73% GD/EX
  • Kansas -7% worse than last year… at 60% GD/EX
  • Wisconsin -7% worse than last year… at 76% GD/EX
  • Nebraska -5% worse than last year… at 74% GD/EX
  • Michigan -4% worse than last year… at 70% GD/EX
  • Missouri -3% worse than last year… at 61% GD/EX