Goldman Sachs analysts believe investors and traders in the stock market are acting irrationally. “Cognitive dissonance exists in the US stock market,” Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin said. “S&P 500 is up 10% since the election despite negative [earnings per share] revisions from sell-side analysts.” “Investors, S&P 500 management teams, and sell-side analysts do not agree on the most likely path forward,” Kostin continued. “On the one hand, investors, corporate managers, and macroeconomic survey data suggest an increase in optimism about future economic growth. In contrast, sell-side analysts have cut consensus 2017 adjusted EPS forecasts by 1% since the election and ‘hard’ macroeconomic data show only modest improvement.” Much of the post-US election rally in the stock market has been attributed to President Donald Trump’s promises for tax cuts and deregulation. However, it may be premature to price in Trump’s business-friendly positions. This seems to explain why analysts’ projections for earnings have yet to be revised up. Goldman Sachs analysts have made no secret about their cautious attitude toward the market. In a note outlining expectations for the S&P 500 in 2017, they argued “hope” would drive the index to 2,400 before “fear” takes over pulling the index back down to 2,300 by year-end. “We are approaching the point of maximum optimism regarding policy initiatives,” Kostin said. “We expect investors will soon de-rate their expectations of potential 2017 EPS growth as they face the reality that the accretive impact from tax reform will not occur until 2018.” (Source: Yahoo Finance)