The USDA bureau in Buenos Aires, in a report published this week, reiterated the strong potential for the Argentine wheat crop to reach a five-year high of 14.4 million metric tons. However, persistent rains have raised some concerns that yields may fall below estimates, with precipitation late in the growing cycle causing sprouting in kernels and quality problems. A setback in Argentine wheat could also provoke a reassessment of its expected exports to neighboring Brazil, an important wheat importer, which has seen its own crop quality threatened by rain. The USDA bureau forecasts Argentine shipments to Brazil rising higher in 2016/17. As for any impacts to U.S. exports, hard red winter wheat could benefit should Argentine supply fall short. Continue keeping an eye on the rains!

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